By Charles Hayslett
CEO,
Hayslett Group
It’s
been right at a month since I wrote a blog about the fact that the Newtown
massacre appeared to have changed the dynamics of America’s gun control
debate. In it, I identified five factors
that would determine whether the altered debate might produce meaningful
changes in state and national policy.
Here’s
a quick update:
- Sustained political leadership. The question was whether President Obama and others would remain engaged and put the weight of their offices behind a legislative push. They have. Obama charged Vice President Biden with coming up with legislative and regulatory recommendations. That plan will be unveiled soon, and Obama seems committed to pressing the issue with Congress and the American people. In addition, several major Blue State governors are moving ahead with local initiatives. So check this box.
- Whether gun control advocates can reframe the debate. It seems to me that’s happening. There’s at least as much discussion about public safety as gun control, with serious attention being paid to limiting access to guns by the mentally ill and strengthening background check requirements. New polls out today from the Washington Post and Pew Research show big jumps in public support limiting the sales of assault weapons and high-capacity magazines, as well as closing background check and gun show loopholes. Check this box as well.
- How quickly things happen. American media and public attention spans are notoriously short. One risk in this situation is that some new calamity would knock Newtown off the front page and out the public consciousness before the political and governmental policy-making sausage machinery could be cranked up. But not even the fiscal cliff could elbow Newtown all the way off the front page, and, as referenced in the first bullet above, Obama, Biden & Co. are about to unveil their recommendations. So check this box too.
- How business and markets react over the medium- and long-term. The picture on this is less clear. After some initial indications that businesses were shying away from the assault weapon business, I haven’t noticed as much news on this, which isn’t terribly surprising; some investors and retailers may still be quietly evaluating their options. The biggest headline on this front went to the nation’s largest gun retailer, Wal-Mart, which at first declined to meet with Biden and his panel, but then buckled. In other developments, Newtown seems to have triggered a boom market in bullet-proof clothes for children.
- How the NRA and its allies respond. I may not be the best one to gauge this, but it seems to me they’re a little off their feed. Wayne LaPierre’s initial press conference calling for armed police in all schools played to less than universal approval, and, just today, the NRA is out with a new iPhone and iPad app that, as the New York Daily News reported, offers “kids as young as 4 a chance to fire guns at coffin-shaped targets.” The newspaper’s headline – “NRA spits on the graves of Newtown massacre victims with release of mobile shoot-'em-up app for iPhone, iPad” – is probably not what the NRA’s PR team was hoping for. All that said, the NRA could well be prepared to lose in the court of public opinion and count on allies in Congress to quietly throttle any major legislation.
